As award season comes to a close, the staff at Turn Off The Bright Lights decided to cast our personal ballots for who will win the Oscars this year. All previous award shows have had rather surprising results, which makes this particular Oscars a particularly hard one to predict. That being said, this article will reflect the personal opinions of our staff and our interpretations of how the Academy votes. As a gentle disclaimer, not every category will be present in this article and not every writer has seen all nominated films. For a full list of nominations please click here.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Adrien Brody – “The Brutalist” (Fabian Garcia)
“The Brutalist” is an old-school movie and many of those old-fashioned sensibilities come through in Brady Corbet’s directorial choices. However, Adrien Brody’s performance as László Tóth reflects this point just as powerfully. Such a restrained character like Tóth rarely garners the amount of praise Brody has, but multiple standout moments propel his character away from the simple and into the complex. His performance as Tóth is so convincing many people walked out of the film thinking his subject was a real person. His performance was able to breathe life into this fictional character and allow them to flow into the seminal consciousness as seamlessly as a real historical figure would. It’s akin to the performance from Cate Blanchett in “Tar.” Her acting as the titular character added a layer of depth rarely achieved by their contemporaries. While Blanchett didn’t win the Oscar for her spectacular performance, perhaps we could rectify this by giving Brody his just deserves.
Additional Staff Predictions:
Adrien Brody – “The Brutalist” (Hector Arrieta, Kamiah Johnson)
Ralph Fiennes – “Conclave” (Evan Ambrose)
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Guy Pearce – The Brutalist (Hector Arrieta)
A supporting actor, although not the principal focus of a film, is nonetheless a star in their own right and can often steal the show. This year features a lot of strong nominations for best-supporting actor with the likes of Jeremy Strong and Guy Pearce, in “The Apprentice” and “The Brutalist” respectively. Although, in an ideal world, all these actors would receive their flowers, in my opinion, Guy Pearce has the highest chance of winning in this category. His performance in “The Brutalist” as Harrison Lee Van Buren Sr. was particularly memorable and elevated by his acting abilities.
Additional Staff Predictions:
Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain (Fabian Garcia, Evan Ambrose, Kamiah Johnson)
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Demi Moore – The Substance (Kamiah Johnson)
The Academy has a long-standing reputation for not acknowledging and honoring the horror genre. Before this year, there have only been six horror films nominated for Best Picture. “The Substance” is the seventh film to join that list. It’s been a surprise to see “The Substance” get recognized this awards season and I believe the biggest award it will take this year will be Best Lead Actress for Demi Moore. “The Substance” pushes Moore to become someone she has probably felt like before. In an industry where the older you are, the less valuable you become -especially for women- the feelings that come with that are channeled into her performance. Moore does a hell of a job playing a scornful woman who watches her life diminish before her eyes. She doesn’t need the incredible hair, makeup, and prosthetics, but they enhance her performance. The film ends with Moore in a final shot that will stay in your mind forever. In her acceptance speech at the 2025 Golden Globes where she won Best Actress in a Motion Picture she said “Thirty years ago, I had a producer tell me that I was a ‘popcorn actress’ … And that corroded me over time, to the point where I thought, a few years ago, that maybe this was it…And as I was at kind of a low point, I had this magical, bold, courageous, out-of-the-box, absolutely bonkers script come across my desk called “The Substance.” And the universe told me that you’re not done.” The academy would probably seeth at the idea of awarding her at the most opportune time in her career.
Additional Staff Predictions:
Mikey Madison – Anora (Fabian Garcia, Evan Ambrose)
Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez (Hector Arrieta)
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Felicity Jones – The Brutalist (Fabian Garcia)
“The Brutalist” is an extremely strong contender for Best Picture this awards season, and one of the things that makes it most salient is the performances supporting the film. Felicity Jones spends ninety percent of her time on screen sitting down, and one would think that his caveat would make her character hard to work around. However, in practice, that simply isn’t the case. Jones delivers an extremely strong performance despite her handicap, no pun intended, and emotes perfectly. The second half of the Brutalist is devoted to her character, Erzsébet Tóth, and her relationship with László Tóth. The subtle pain in László is juxtaposed with Erzsébet’s obvious physical toll perfectly. Demonstrating not only the lasting effects of the Holocaust but just how irreversible trauma can be. Indeed, it is an enduring reminder that suffering doesn’t just end when the event is over, it’s a struggle that is carried up until death. Jones embodies this undeniable fact perfectly and lets it show on screen for the whole world to gaze.
Additional Staff Predictions:
Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez (Hector Arrieta, Evan Ambrose, Kamiah Johnson)
DIRECTING
Sean Baker – Anora (Evan Ambrose)
The line-up for best director includes Sean Baker for “Anora,” Brady Corbet for “The Brutalist,” James Mangold for “A Complete Unknown,” Jacques Audiard for “Emilia Pérez,” and Coralie Fargeat for “The Substance.” Something interesting to point out with the nominees is that none of them have ever received an Academy Award nomination before, except for James Mangold who had been nominated for two Oscars for two separate movies previously. Logically, this would make Mangold the forerunner to win the award, but with all the other movies that “A Complete Unknown” is up against, it seems as if it was the one that made the least amount of noise (positive or negative) during award season. This leads me to believe that a first-time nominee will actually win best director this year, and personally, I think Sean Baker is the most likely choice. With the controversy surrounding “The Brutalist” and “Emilia Pérez,” and the unconventionality of a horror movie (The Substance”) being nominated, it just makes sense that long-time and consistently critically acclaimed filmmaker Sean Baker would be the safest pick to win this year’s award, yet deservedly so.
Additional Staff Predictions:
Sean Baker – Anora (Fabian Garcia)
Brady Corbet – The Brutalist (Hector Arrieta, Kamiah Johnson)
BEST PICTURE
Nickel Boys – Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Joslyn Barnes, Producers (Evan Ambrose)
The line-up for best picture includes “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “A Complete Unknown,” “Conclave,” “Dune: Part Two,” “Emilia Pérez,” “I’m Still Here,” “Nickel Boys,” “The Substance,” and “Wicked.” If I had to choose which movie I’d want to win, my pick would be “Nickel Boys.” However, due to the lack of buzz around it arguably compared to any other runner-up, I doubt it’ll get the recognition that it deserves. As far as who I believe will win for best picture this year, it’s a tough call. Despite its domineering acclaim, many speculate “Dune: Part Two” won’t win because they believe that the Academy voters are holding out for its sequel “Dune: Messiah” to potentially win instead, in the same sense that a “Lord of the Rings” movie didn’t win best picture till it’s third entry “Return of the King” back in 2004. If this is a “sweep year” (i.e. a year where one movie in particular takes home a substantial amount of the awards) then I would guess “Anora” or even “Wicked” winning best picture. However, if by the end of the award ceremony when Best Picture is about to be announced we alternatively see a variety of winners, then I can see “I’m Still Here” winning Best Picture, as it has become a fan favorite, especially amongst its predominantly Brazillian fanbase. This would align with when the South Korean movie “Parasite” won back in 2019 due to how overwhelming the favoritism for it was from the majority populous despite a foreign movie winning Best Picture being unheard of.
Additional Staff Predictions:
Nickel Boys – Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Joslyn Barnes, Producers (Fabian Garcia)
The Brutalist – Nick Gordon, Brian Young, Andrew Morrison, D.J. Gugenheim and Brady Corbet, Producers (Hector Arrieta, Kamiah Johnson)
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
Emilia Pérez – Screenplay by Jacques Audiard; In collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius and Nicolas Livecchi (Hector Arrieta)
What does it mean to have an adapted screenplay? Does it simply mean, as the name suggests, adapting a preexisting work for the big screen, or does it involve creating something entirely new with a fresh vision, sharing only the name like the ship of Theseus? Well, I don’t have answers to either of those questions, but I do know which nomination in this category will win. This year, the adapted screenplay category resembles a smorgasbord with varying levels of quality. On the high end, there are films like “The Nickel Boys” and “Conclave,” while on the low end, we find films like “Emilia Perez” and “A Complete Unknown.” The former are captivating films with strong storylines, interesting characters, and stellar performances, whereas the latter embody the opposite of those qualities. Therefore, this means the showdown is between the latter two films, and considering the current momentum that “Emilia Perez” has both at award shows and online, I believe that, unfortunately, “Emilia Perez” will win this category.
Additional Staff Predictions:
Nickel Boys – Screenplay by RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes (Fabian Garcia, Kamiah Johnson)
Sing Sing – Screenplay by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar; Story by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield (Evan Ambrose)
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
Anora – Written by Sean Baker (Kamiah Johnson)
Every movie starts with a screenplay. Without the words on paper, how can you translate a story to the screen? A great screenplay will set the bar high for what a movie can become, and that’s what I believe Sean Baker’s screenplay for “Anora” does. With six nominations, including acting, directing, and best picture, I think its strongest aspect is its writing. Baker’s dialogue carries this film and makes two hours and nineteen minutes fly by in a flurry of expletives, arguing, yelling, and best of all, talking. At its core, “Anora” is a character study. We follow Anora as she experiences what seems to be a Cinderella story, which quickly turns into a manhunt movie. Throughout the film, we learn who Anora is and how badly she tries to hold on to this fairy tale that is slowly leaving her grasp. Baker seamlessly intertwines drama and comedy in his screenplay which is filled with an emotional depth that will take you by surprise. Baker flips the romantic comedy on its head, incorporating drama, and underneath it all, heart. This is why it sets itself apart from the other nominees and is a shoo-in to win Best Original Screenplay this year.
Additional Staff Predictions:
The Brutalist – Written by Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold (Fabian Garcia, Hector Arrieta)
The Substance- Written by Coralie Fargeat (Evan Ambrose)
The 97th Academy Awards will be held on March 2 at the Dolby Theatre at Ovation Hollywood starting at 4 p.m. PT.
Turn off the Bright Lights 